Posts Tagged ‘Summer’

Based on continued informal soundings from our industry, Wall Street and government sources along with more objective calibrations of key factors such as financing; balance sheet; NRC license status; design certification; market support and electricity demand; engineering procurement and construction contracts; and politics and public acceptance – not necessarily in that order – the Nuclear Townhall’s U.S. Renaissance Power Ranking Top 10 – first unveiled in September – makes its October debut on the heels of the Constellation Calvert Cliffs developments.
 
Still leading the list to no one’s surprise is Southern Nuclear’s Vogtle Plant Units 3 and 4.  Playing the turtle, low flying South Carolina Electric & Gas V.C. Summer II & III rocks into the #2 position with the South Texas Project moving up into the #3 slot given the impasse over chief loan guarantee competitor Calvert Cliffs. 
 
A new entrant – Westinghouse AP1000 – joins the gang at #4 on the strength of some public NRC utterances.  Calvert Cliffs III, with EDF to the rescue, clings to the #10 slot (down from #5).  Up by big reactor default are a bevy of SMR initiatives.
 
No Change:
 
Southern Vogtle
 
Up:
 
V.C. Summer
South Texas Project
Westinghouse
SMRs
 
Down:
 
Urenco USA
TVA
Eagle Rock
Dominion
Calvert Cliffs
 
Out:
 
Duke Lee Station
 
Drum roll…
 
1.     Southern Vogtle III & IV (Previous Ranking #1)
 
Flagship U.S. project.  Loan guarantees in place. Solid and steady.  Shovels in the ground.
 
2.     South Carolina Electric & Gas V.C. Summer II & III  (Up from  #8)
 
Strategy of flying under the radar is poised to pay off.  Has avoided being number one in the NRC licensing que and in engagement with DOE on the loan guarantee process.  Small utility aiming to play major leagues. Good political support.  Lowered load growth.
 
3.     South Texas Project (Up from #6)
 
White House rushes loan guarantee forward in the face of Calvert Cliffs embarrassment.  Merchant plant but proven technology. Low natural gas prices and no carbon pricing remain issues along with lowered load growth.
 
4.     Westinghouse AP1000 (New, No Previous Ranking)
 
Influential NRC Commissioner Kristine Svinicki tells global nuclear forum that the AP 1000 design review is on track.  2011 license approval in the cards?
 
5.     TVA Watts Bar II, Bellafonte I  (Down from#3)
 
Tangible commitments made to Bellafonte I development.
 
6.     Small Modular Reactors:  B&W mPower; NuScale SMR, Hyperion HPM (Up from #10)
 
With large reactors cratering, they can’t help but move up.  Hyperion secures preliminary DOE site commitment.  Customer challenged.
 
7.     URENCO USA Enrichment Facility (Down from #2)
 
Not sexy but progressing.  Kick-started in June and headed toward 5.7 million SWU capacity. First new U.S. enrichment capacity in 30 years.
 
8.     AREVA Eagle Rock enrichment plant (Down from #7)
 
Loan guarantee in place; proven centrifuge technology. Deep pockets. Strong state support.
 
9.     Dominion Energy North Anna III (Down from #4)
 
Rate-based.  Rock solid credentials. Very competitive EPC contract.  Uncertified technology.
 
10.                        UniStar Calvert Cliffs III (down from #5)
 
The French Flagship?  Down but not out.  Loan guarantee complications but EDF to the rescue.  Low natural gas prices and no carbon pricing remain issues along with lowered load growth.
 
BEST OF THE REST:  Duke Energy Lee Station; Illuminant Comanche Peak; Progress Sharon Harris; AREVA-Northrop Grumman manufacturing; USEC American Centrifuge; GE-Hitachi Laser Enrichment